Saturday, September 8, 2012

The Mathematical Impossibility for Gen Y to Save for Retirement

A quote from Goldfinger:

"Yes, well, I've worked out a few statistics of my own. 15 billion dollars in gold bullion weighs 10,500 tons. Sixty men would take twelve days to load it onto 200 trucks. Now, at the most, you're going to have two hours before the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines move in and make you put it back."

I've worked out a few statistics of my own, too.  Back of napkin of course.

The average Gen Y youth as well as all future youth have to spend the first 18 years growing up and getting an elementary education.  Another 4 years, more likely 5 with unnecessary liberal arts prereq's shoved down their throats make them 23 by the time they graduate with their bachelors degrees.  However, their bachelors are worthless and most companies won't hire them anyway because of the lousy economy, so they return for another 2 years of school making them a quarter century old before they hit the labor force.

But, when they do hit the labor force, it won't be at a job they're capable of.  It will be something mundane that they could have done in high school.  Thus why underemployment rates are roughly 50% for the average 25 year old. 

The problem is compounded because not only are the youth working jobs they could have done in high school (and at a commensurate wage), they have student debts they have to pay off.  The next decade they muddle through lousy jobs with no hope for advancement or challenge due to the managerial ineptitude of the previous generations, finally paying off their student debts at the age of 35. 

35, however, is pretty late in the game to "finally" be "starting a life."  And by "starting a life" I mean starting families and getting a house. IF you were fortunate enough to not have a kid by this time, you could feasibly find a spouse and afford a house.  If you were like everybody else however, you have a kid, still have student loans, and probably defaulted on your house.  Your credit is shot, you won't be able to find a house soon and starting a traditional family is nearly impossible as men do not have the earning power (even in their 30's) to pay for a family and women are starting to push child-bearing into a risky age range.

You get a couple kids and you get a house.  The kids will keep you financially strapped for the next 20 years, the mortgage 30.  Of course, the mortgage will not be as much as a liability as it will be progressive property taxes that will increase to the point the house is no longer an asset, but a liability.  Whatever the case, you're pushing 60 by the time these liabilities are paid off.

"60" did you say?

Yes, 60 and you haven't even started saving for retirement.  And I am not blaming you.  You never had the money to save for retirement.  It took 25 years to get you educated to the point the Credentialism-Infected American labor market would even entertain hiring you.  And another 10-20 years before they'd ever give you a decent wage or consider giving you a job with responsibility.  This is of course requiring you to take "CPE" every 6 months while offering nothing in terms of employment security, job stability (ie-not changing your job duties every 3 months) let alone, sanity in your job.

Regardless, 60 years old is too late to save for retirement.  Despite government promises of retirement at the age of 65, mathematically you are going to have to work till you're dead.  I hope MI6 has a good pension, 007.

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