Friday, May 29, 2009

First Real Sign the Recession Might Be Over

Actually, I don't believe it will be over for a long time. Not by a long shot. Oh sure, economic growth may go to .1% or slightly positive, but I'm expecting a repeat 1979-1983, 5 year period of absolute crap for economic growth.

That being said, inventory to sales seems to have leveled off. Normally this would suggest an end to a recession, but when you misallocate $2 trillion in a $14 trillion in the form of a "stimulus," well that kind of fiscal policy will mute any traditional, natural means by which the economy heals itself.

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