I Project Unemployment to Break 10%

Figured it was time to refresh a favorite chart of mine which previous quants and economists berated me about, claiming it had no predictive value and that chart is housing starts versus unemployment.


Again, I like this chart because housing starts predict unemployment. So when housing starts tank, unemployment usually peaks 6-18 months later. A banker buddy of mine was asking me when I think unemployment will peak and I said, "Well, based on this chart we have at least another 6 months to go. If you notice the peak of unemployment happens 6-18 months AFTER housing starts BOTTOM OUT. We haven't bottomed out yet."

Now, given the severity of the financial problems the US is having, not to mention everybody has chartered the government with the job of getting the country out of recession, and the fact housing has tank to its LOWEST POINT ON RECORD and HASN"T STOPPED TANKING YET, I'm going to project unemployment will continue to skyrocket EASILY surpassing 10%.

The recession is just starting people. And with the spendulus, get ready for it to drag on and on and on and on, just like those good ol' New Deal Days!

Oh, but I'm sure we're OK with that. We got ourselves one good looking president and have assuaged ourselves of white guilt! I'm sure that's worth destroying the US economy!