Slowing Long Term Economic Growth

GDP growth is volatile and chaotic;


But if you smooth it out a bit, a disturbing trend is showing and that is, over time, our long term economic growth rate has been decreasing;


People ask me what I think is going to happen in the future, and then when I tell them, they all poo poo me saying, "Oh Captain, you're so pessimistic." "Oh Captain, why do you have to be cynical."

So allow me some of my insights.

One, I'm rarely wrong. Matter of fact (and arrogant as this may sound, it's true) if the blue blood Ivy League loser ilk had listened to this dumb fly-over country hick graduate, they wouldn't be going to the taxpayer with a cup in their hand, let alone be looking for a job today. I predicted this housing market crash (along with a million other people), the stock market bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the collapse of the Suharto regime (never mind, long story, back in my youth). So when I predict a slow degradation of the US into essentially an English speaking version of France and an utter financial and economic collapse under the weight of the baby boomers retiring/social security/medicare, maybe, just maybe this once you ought to listen to me.

Two, without economic growth, let alone the hope for future increases in economic growth, the present value of today's assets are going to drop or at least not go up. I know people on Wall Street and people who rely on increasing asset values for retirement like to hunt or look for reasons for their assets to perpetually go up aside from profit, but with the backdrop of slowing economic growth, it is unlikely, assets as a whole, are going to go up, unless you have some kind of phenomenon contributing to an asset bubble (lower interest rates, the trend to throw trillions into 401k's, tulip bulbs, etc.).

Three, recessions are a good thing, damnit. I don't know why we try to avoid them all the time at the expense of compromising our future economic growth. Not only did we have higher average economic growth in the 40's and 50's, it was more volatile, resulting in more, but briefer recessions. This was due to the government not trying to impose a Keynesian interventionist fiscal policy every time the economy got a sniffle. Now bailout this, bailout that, Fed Funds rate lowered here, loan package there, Stimulus Plan I, II and III. Instead of letting resources reallocate efficiently and rapidly, we now prefer long, dragged out, dulling recessions or periods of lackluster economic growth. Anything, ANYTHING to avoid two successive quarters of economic decline, because we know that is just an unacceptable economic fate.

In any case, there's more economic data suggesting a collapse in the US. I have tons of it. And I doubt I'm going to be proven wrong. But if it's anything like the housing crash (or the stock market bubble, or telling a large bank here in America Indonesia would fall) getting the morons in the financial markets and financial industry to listen will be an impossible task and, ergo, why I'm simply just going to be recording it here for anybody willing to pull their heads out of the sand.