And since I live in Minnesota, Sturgis, South Dakota is only a day's drive away. I've visited the Sturgis Rally twice now. Not on account I wanted to go to Sturgis, but because I love the Black Hill's area of South Dakota and Sturgis just happens to be there. But for whatever the reason I was there, there was something I noticed both times when I was;
there ain't no young people.
Oh sure, there's the occasional 35 year old there. And the 20 something couple there. But the VAST majority of people under 30 at Sturgis are simply there as wait staff and bartenders. They are not participants.
I found this odd on my little venture into Sturgis, my little Cappy Cap brain trying to find a reason for the lack of youth. And the answer quickly came to me as I headed out to Vanocker Canyon. For it was there, in its curvy valley, I was stuck behind Baby Boomer motorcyclist after Baby Boomer motorcyclist making their way through the canyon at 15 miles per hour.
Now keep in mind, your Captain has a dinky Ninja 250. The primary purpose for the purchase was fuel efficiency. So it should NEVER by the laws of physics be able to pass a 950 v-twin Harley. Of course it did because it was some 59 year old banker scared to shift into 3rd gear and actually accelerate above 45 MPH, but that isn't the point. The point is 90% of the people who own Harley's shouldn't be driving them, but they are the only ones that can afford them. And being the only ones that can afford them, they make up the majority of the participants of Sturgis.
It is because of this, Sturgis I predict will pass away with the passing of the Baby Boomer generation. They are the only ones in their prime earning years and are therefore the only ones who can afford Harleys. Or in other words;
Harley Davidson has failed to prepare for the next generation. Good luck finding a Harley that is affordable to the average 27 year old kid.
However, Harley Davidson is not the only company failing to account for a generation that will invariably pass.
Bosch, a division in which I am somewhat familiar with, has a plant where the "old timers" there are about the only ones in the nation who are trained to use the very unique and specific machinery. They have mentioned, on several occasions, how when they retire there will be no replacements available to do their jobs and that Bosch might want to consider hiring apprentices. Of course that went unheeded, and now the old timers know just to keep their mouths shut as it really isn't their problem.
Dayton, Ohio as well faces this problem where recently they had to lower the passing scores for their police entrance exam. The primary reason for this lowering of standards was NOT as the media may report to allow for more minorities to pass. The original impetus was a disproportionate amount of cops retiring. Again, nobody is grooming replacements.
Now I could go on and on, but you get the point.
Companies and institutions are failing to preparing for the passing of the current generation of managers, specialized employees and so on, and are merely waiting till judgement day to find replacements (kind of like social security - not until the 11th hour are we concerned about very real and immediate problems).
Which results in a phenomenon my younger Gen X and Gen Y economists no doubt are running into - the experience paradox.
In other words all jobs require X years of experience, even entry level ones, behooving the question of age old, "Well if nobody is going to give me experience, how do I get any?"
The answer is simple, you won't. But there is of course a consequence for our beloved Corporate America - they have irrational demands that will never be met.
Notice in the olden days they had these things called "training programs" where you could come out of high school, go into this "training program" and the company would "train you" to do the job.
You didn't have to go to college.
You didn't have to have a degree.
You just had to show up, have a good record and boom, off to work you went.
But now, you need to have years of experience, and not just years of experience, you must be able to train yourself. Thus inane requirements in job postings such as;
"Must be able to hit the ground running."
or
"Steep learning curve."
or
"Self-learner."
Your Captain routinely sees jobs requiring SAS experience. When he calls the employer and asks if they would be willing to train him in it (which would take a whole week), he is immediately dismissed as they need somebody NOW. Sure enough 4 weeks later the job is still open, when the Captain (or any applicant) could have been providing them 3 weeks of full service by that time. But again, I don't have an MBA, so what do I know.
Regardless, all of this translates into;
"We're too cheap to train you and frankly have become so cheap that we're now willing to sacrifice quality and profitability. Besides which, our managers don't like being bothered with petty BS questions you may have. Here's a training manual, figure it out yourself and don't bother us."
Of course the real world results are that of Sturgis, the Bosch plant, or the Ohio Police Department. A mad scramble that will come when they realize they haven't groomed or prepared any successors. Worse still, with progressively less and less effort and time dedicated towards training employees, as well as the general deterioration of loyalty Gen X and Gen Y have to employers, how precisely are you going to find those "loyal junior executives" to groom?
Oh, I know, they're out there, they're out there. But not in the number, nor may I say quality of previous generations. Not in part due to anything inherent with Gen X or Y (though I could see somebody making the argument for my generation being lacking in other areas), but because of an utter lack of resources spent on training and preparing them. It will be like the father who ignored his children for years, perhaps was an alcoholic, and not until he sobers up and his children are in their 20's or 30's, does he approach them and say,
"Hey, do you want to go camping?"
"Sorry, dad. I'm busy with work, and uh, who are you again?"
Translate that into the corporate rush to find new blood for managerial ranks in say the next 10-20 years;
"Hey, do you want to get promoted?"
"Sorry, I don't want to pay the taxes nor do I want the responsibility. I've learned to live on unreliable income and keep my expenses down. I have no children, no mortgage and no car payment, and therefore no responsibilities and have become accustomed to this non-rat-race life.
Besides, I don't know SAS."
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