When Oil Prices Crash

So one of the radio show hosts' passion is ethanol. And not that I'm not interested in it, but it's not necessarily a forte or a particular interest of mine.

That is until my daytime gig required I analyze an ethanol plant as a prospective investment.

Now, truthfully, I couldn't care less about the ethanol deal. Yeah, I'm sure it's interesting, but as far as I can tell, oil has to be pretty darn high to make ethanol economic WITHOUT the subsidies.

And that's my whole point.

It's only when oil is in the nose-bleed section does ethanol (among other alternative fuels) ever become addressed or contemplated or make the news. Of course oil doesn't remain in the nose-bleed section forever. And if/when any one of the following happens;

1. The Mideast settles down, grows up and instead of killing people to get to Allah they find out they can make a tidy living pumping oil
2. A new large deposit of oil is found
3. The US goes into recession thereby dropping demand for oil
4. China grows only at 7% GDP instead of 12%!
5. We build some refineries

Interest and demand for these alternative fuels are going to tank as the price of oil is going to tank (bringing ethanol prices with it) and thus go back to being once again the fuel of choice;



And while I may lament the loss of ethanol for a discussion topic, when oil tanks (which it will), there will be a much more interesting topic in its place;

How the hell will Hugo Chavez stay in power without his oil money?