Obama's Effect on the Stock Market

There was much speculation and discussion about whether or not the market had "priced" an Obama and socialist party victory into stock prices. And up on Obama winning the market promptly tanked 4% the very next day (and the day after). Of course there are those out there who contend that the market tanking had nothing to do with Obama and his propensity to increase corporate taxes, but I was sent an outstanding chart by a reader from George named Geoff.


The chart above shows Obama's Intrade closing value versus the S&P 500. Obama's trade value was inverted so as to show the relationship between stock market values and his likelihood of being elected.

The correlation is quite strong coming in above a .9 correlation coefficient. Of course I will readily admit that there was most certainly other things going on in the market that had nothing to do with Barack that drove the price of stocks down while Barack's Intrade value was going up. However, I am willing to bet the free pony Obama has promised me that even after adjusting for these figures the market was trading down based on the fact Obama would increase taxes on not just corporations but people as well.

You have to understand right now that I am more or less just preaching to the choir, as I've found to try to talk rationally or logically with Obama supporters is quite pointless as no matter how much data or logic you throw at them, you still get "hope and change and, uh, you know stuff." So now, all I'm doing is just creating and empirical record so that when there are bread lines I can show those people in the breadlines some neat charts from 3 years ago that explain why they're waiting in line for bread in the first place.