Mind the Lag

Something I noticed which I have not the time to explore, but perhaps one of you aspiring junior deputy economists can figure this one out.

But previous to the past two recessions we’ve had, unemployment peaked at the end of recessions. This only makes sense as so long as the economy is retracting, then unemployment would go down until growth took over again.

But now it seems unemployment lags behind the economy. Eyeballing it, it looks like about a year to a year and a half lag before unemployment peaks and then starts to recover;